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ChainCatcher reports that gold, silver, and Bitcoin are experiencing simultaneous sharp declines, and this is not a coincidence—the three have collectively formed the theme of “currency depreciation trade” over the past two years, and now are all collapsing under the same macro forces. This week, gold fell below $4,000, down about 28% from its historical high of $5,600 in January 2025; silver has dropped more than 50% from its peak of $120; Bitcoin has fallen about 50% from its October peak, at one point approaching $58,000, and has now broken below the 200-week moving average of about $60,000—a key line widely seen as long-term support for Bitcoin. The so-called “currency depreciation trade” refers to bets that large-scale government spending and the continuous rise in national debt will erode the purchasing power of fiat currency, thereby driving capital towards scarce assets such as gold, silver, and Bitcoin, which has a supply limit of 21 million coins. During the period of dollar weakness in 2025, all three types of assets attracted significant inflows, and the market treated them as one basket of assets. Now, the forces driving the reversal are also aligned. The first interest rate meeting chaired by the new Federal Reserve Chair, Waller, sent a hawkish signal, and the market is currently pricing in two rate hikes of 25 basis points each by March 2027. The dollar rose 0.8% this week alone. Higher real interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, silver, and Bitcoin, while a strong dollar puts pressure on buyers using non-dollar currencies. It is noteworthy that Bitcoin underperformed gold and silver during the rally but is now declining in lockstep, highlighting its awkward position. However, since the February low, Bitcoin has gained about 30% against gold and over 55% against silver, showing some relative improvement. Analysts point out that Bitcoin plays dual roles as both a speculative risk asset and a hard-currency hedge, and currently, both logics point downward. Until the Federal Reserve maintains its hawkish stance and the dollar remains strong, Bitcoin will likely struggle to break free from its linkage to precious metals.

BlockBeats News, June 28. This week, the global market will face a highly complex situation with multiple overlapping factors: Super Data Week, early release of non-farm payroll data, end-of-month/end-of-quarter/end-of-year institutional rebalancing, and escalating US-Iran conflict, which may lead to a significant surge in market volatility. On the geopolitical front, despite the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, the tense situation has not eased. On Saturday, the US military launched a second round of airstrikes against Iranian targets in response to Iran's downing of a Panamanian-flagged oil tanker "Kiku," which was carrying over 2 million barrels of crude oil. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard then launched missile and drone attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain, warning that any violation of the agreement would trigger a "destructive response." The risk in the Strait of Hormuz has escalated again, putting pressure on oil prices that had previously fallen to around $72. Deutsche Bank has warned that the market is too optimistic about supply recovery, as the inventory levels at the Kharg oil terminal are below the level needed for system stability. On the data front, due to the US market closure on July 4 for Independence Day, this month's non-farm payroll report will be released early on Thursday, July 2. The market expects an addition of 130,000 jobs in June. This week's data calendar is packed, including Tuesday's JOLTS job openings, Wednesday's ADP employment and ISM Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone's initial CPI for June, and a series of data releases that will impact the market alternately. In addition, the May PCE, released last week, rose to 4.1% year-on-year, reaching a near three-year high, further solidifying expectations of a Fed rate hike later this year. In terms of asset performance, the S&P 500 index has risen by over 7% in the first half of the year, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has surged by 85% from its March low, but the NASDAQ fell by over 4% this week. Gold failed to hold above $1800 under strong US data and inflation pressure, but a Kitco survey shows that both institutions and retail investors are mostly bearish. JPMorgan Chase raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 7200 to 7800 this week, but many institutions advise investors to remain cautious as we enter the second half of the year and wait for buying opportunities created by the volatility.

A report by Fidelity Digital Assets shows that by the end of 2025, the number of publicly listed companies holding at least 1,000 Bitcoin will increase from 22 at the end of 2024 to 49, controlling nearly 5% of Bitcoin's supply. Strategy holds about 847,000 Bitcoin, Twenty One Capital holds about 43,500 Bitcoin, Metaplanet holds about 40,000 Bitcoin, and MARA Holdings holds about 36,000 Bitcoin. As of early June 2026, between 170 and 199 listed companies hold approximately 1,265,000 Bitcoin, accounting for 6% of the total supply, valued at around $7.6 billion. In May 2026, listed companies had a net increase of 43,557 Bitcoin, with SpaceX included among the holders.