News

VIPStrategy (MSTR) Deep Dive & STRC Leveraged Financing Strategy

1. Global markets broadly declined last week. Silver (-9.0%), ETH (-8.5%), WTI crude oil (-6.1%), and BTC (-6.0%) led the losses, while only natural gas (+1.1%), the U.S. Dollar Index (+0.3%), and the Japanese yen (+0.3%) posted gains. Overall market sentiment shifted toward risk aversion, with safe-haven assets outperforming. 2. This issue examines Strategy's (MSTR) capital structure and the valuation framework for STRC. STRC currently trades at $75 (a 25% discount to par) with a 15.33% current yield, compared with a 2.56% USDT financing rate on Bitget, creating a 12.77 percentage point carry spread. A 1x financing strategy (2x gross leverage) delivers an estimated 28.1% annual net carry yield. June 30 is the ex-dividend date, and Bitget supports rSTRC collateralized lending within the same account. 3. Continued capital inflows into AI, recent net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, and expectations of ongoing Federal Reserve quantitative tightening suggest the crypto market may be entering a medium-term range-bound phase. A backtest covering July 2022 to September 2023 (during which BTC returned 28.4%) evaluated 25 quantitative strategies. Only Net Flow Trend outperformed Buy & Hold, returning 32.1% with a maximum drawdown of 8.06%, while 13 strategies generated negative returns. This week's focus: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate will both be released on Thursday (July 2), with the unemployment rate currently at 4.3%, near a two-year high. Nike (NKE) reports earnings after the close on June 30. Key assets to watch: BTC, ETH, SOL, MSTR, and rSTRC.

VIPWarsh's Tightening Framework Takes Shape, Blue-Chip DeFi Protocols Poised for Valuation Rerating

1. Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting concluded with rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, the elimination of forward guidance, and a sharply streamlined 130-word policy statement. Across asset classes, WTI crude fell 15.78% (its worst weekly performance of the year), while gold rose 6.1%, silver gained 8.2%, and the Nikkei 225 surged 11.0%, making it the week's strongest major index. We believe the emerging combination of higher rates and quantitative tightening will gradually weaken the liquidity-driven narrative that defined the QE era, while assets with sustainable revenue generation should be better positioned in a tighter monetary environment. 2. This report applies a traditional P/S valuation framework to compare leading DeFi protocols with major global brokerage firms. PumpFun (4.4x P/S) and Sky (5.5x P/S) now trade below the median valuation multiple of traditional online brokers (5.5x P/S), while Aave (9.4x P/S) sits within a reasonable growth-stock range. Although Hyperliquid (74.8x P/S) appears expensive on conventional metrics, its valuation reflects expectations that it could evolve into an on-chain alternative to exchanges such as CME, ICE, and Cboe. Uniswap (74.6x P/S) stands to benefit from regulatory developments such as the CLARITY Act, which could accelerate real-world asset tokenization and significantly expand the pool of tradable assets on-chain. 3. Bitget Quant Strategy Backtest (May 18–June 17): Short-biased trend-following strategies significantly outperformed range-trading strategies during the review period. The 10x MACD Short Futures Strategy ranked as the top-performing BTC and ETH strategy, delivering returns of +322% and +463%, respectively. The primary driver was the persistent downtrend observed across both assets throughout the testing period. Key assets/events to watch: BTC, ETH, SOL, SKY, AAVE, UNI, PUMP. Monitor Micron (MU) earnings for signals on AI infrastructure spending and semiconductor demand.

VIPWaller's Debut Sets the Tone for the Fed, Crypto Markets Flash Multiple Bottoming Signals

1. Geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation are driving volatility, as markets shift from pricing in rate cuts to pricing in renewed tightening risk. A second round of U.S.–Iran airstrikes, combined with May inflation data showing CPI rising to 4.2% year-over-year (a three-year high) and PPI accelerating to 6.5%, has materially altered the macro narrative. We believe the window for Fed rate cuts has largely closed, with CME FedWatch now implying a 70% probability of at least one additional rate hike this year. The June 18 FOMC meeting marks Chair Waller's first policy meeting since taking office. More important than the rate decision itself will be the tone and substance of his remarks, which are likely to shape expectations for Fed policy in the second half of 2026 and beyond. We view this meeting as a key inflection point for cross-asset pricing. 2. Three major central banks (Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England) meet this week, making June 18 one of the most important policy days of the year. Our base case is that the Fed leaves rates unchanged at 3.75% while shifting its dot plot higher and adopting more hawkish language, signaling a willingness to tighten further if inflation remains persistent. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is approaching the 160 level—a threshold that previously triggered direct intervention by Japanese authorities. Combined with growing expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike, we see scope for a near-term appreciation of the yen. Investors should also be mindful of potential carry-trade unwinding, which could create volatility across global risk assets. Given the elevated event risk, we recommend reducing leveraged exposure and maintaining adequate portfolio liquidity ahead of the FOMC meeting. 3. Bitcoin's three key bottoming indicators are flashing a rare confluence signal. AHR999 stands at 0.3249, Price/200WMA at 1.024, and Reserve Risk at 0.0011. Since 2015, all three indicators have simultaneously triggered only three times. Each prior occurrence was followed by gains of more than 120% over the subsequent 12 months. However, Bitcoin ETF flows remain negative (7-day average: -$232 million), and institutional premium indicators have yet to turn positive. Our preferred approach is to accumulate gradually within the current bottoming zone and look for seven consecutive days of ETF net inflows as a higher-conviction signal to increase exposure. Key assets to watch: BTC, ETH, SOL, WLD, BEAT, FIDA, ASML, and ACN. Also watch for potential long-JPY opportunities via JPYUSD CFDs (160 is a key BoJ intervention level, and rising rate hike expectations may support yen appreciation).

VIPMajor Asset Retreat Broadly; SpaceX's Historic IPO Approaches

1. A combination of stronger-than-expected U.S. payrolls, weaker-than-expected AI guidance from Broadcom, a 2. nd continued Bitcoin ETF outflows triggered the sharpest selloff in global risk assets so far in 2026. BTC fell 15.9% to $60,933, while the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 12 (Extreme Fear). The Nasdaq 100 declined 4.5%, while defensive sectors outperformed. Credit spreads widened by 4 bps, indicating no immediate signs of systemic stress, although deleveraging remains ongoing. This week's CPI release will be the market's key catalyst. 3. SpaceX is set to launch the largest IPO in U.S. market history. The offering is priced at $135 per share, with approximately $75 billion expected to be raised, implying a post-IPO valuation of $1.75–1.95 trillion. The company combines three distinct businesses: Starlink ($11.4 billion in revenue, 39% operating margin), launch services (82% global commercial market share by payload mass), and xAI ($6.4 billion operating loss). Bitget Research assigns a target price of $135–150 per share, while Bitget Pre-IPO products (preSPAX spot + SPCXUSDT futures) offer investors an opportunity to participate in price discovery ahead of the IPO. 4. One of the most effective ways to navigate periods of market panic is through quant trading. During BTC's 15.9% decline, all 21 quantitative strategies tracked by Bitget Research outperformed a simple buy-and-hold approach, generating an average alpha of +10.33%. Grid trading ranked first with +21.66% alpha and a maximum drawdown of just -3.73%, demonstrating that rules-based strategies can significantly outperform discretionary decision-making during periods of extreme fear and volatility. Assets to watch: SpaceX, BTC, SOL, HYPE, WLD, FIDA, ORCL, ADBE, XLM, HBAR

VIPSpaceX's Mega IPO Is Coming: Will It Drain Liquidity From the Market?

1. A wave of mega IPOs is approaching U.S. Markets. SpaceX has already filed its S-1 and is expected to go public in the coming months at an estimated valuation of $1.5–2.0 trillion. According to Deutsche Bank, even the largest IPOs historically have had only a limited impact on overall market liquidity, with an estimated drag of around 1%. In fact, IPO waves have typically coincided with, rather than disrupted, bull markets. Meanwhile, the explosion during Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket test triggered a sharp selloff in pre-IPO space assets, sending Hyperliquid's SpaceX futures down 43% in just seven minutes and liquidating more than 400+ retail traders. By contrast, Bitget's Pre-IPO market is anchored by spot assets, allowing market makers to hedge between spot and derivatives markets, resulting in deeper liquidity and better protection against extreme price spikes and flash crashes. 2. Divergence in the stablecoin market continues to widen: Since March, USDGO has grown 547%, driven by strong demand for regulated stablecoins. In contrast, USDe has seen its market capitalization shrink 25.5%, reflecting weakening demand for algorithmic and yield-driven stablecoin structures. On Bitget, USDGO offers an attractive base yield while also serving as an eligible asset for IPO Prime subscriptions. 3. Quant strategies outperformed buy-and-hold in May: BTC declined 3.4% during the month, yet 18 of 22 quant strategies outperformed a buy-and-hold BTC position, generating an average alpha of 1.93%. The top performer was the OBV Divergence strategy, which delivered 7.41% alpha. Assets to watch: BTC, XLM, PSG (Champions League catalyst), HYPE (approaching all-time highs), AVGO (June 3 earnings), and Natural Gas (NG).

VIPKevin Warsh Sworn in as Fed Chair, Putting Broad Pressure on Crypto Assets

1. Following Kevin Warsh's appointment as Fed chair, the Fed has shifted back toward a more conservative policy stance. His hawkish position — that rates should not be cut before inflation returns to target — has significantly pushed back market expectations for easing. Holding rates steady throughout the year has now become the market's base-case scenario, while tail risks of further hikes are also beginning to be priced in. Expectations for global liquidity are tightening, although total stablecoin market capitalization in crypto continues to reach new all-time highs, with USDGO emerging as one of the fastest-growing stablecoins. 2. 10-year sovereign bond yields across major developed economies surged sharply this week: Japan climbed above 2.75% to multi-decade highs, the U.S. reached 4.57%, the UK touched 4.92%, and Germany rose to 3.14%. Yield volatility reached 3–4 sigma levels during the week, marking one of the most extreme moves since the 2022 UK pension crisis. Risk-off sentiment strengthened significantly, with capital rotating away from risk assets and into defensive assets. 3. BTC declined 1.96% this week, but the OBV volume-price divergence strategy delivered the strongest performance with +4.46% alpha. The strategy focuses on price-volume divergence signals: when price makes a new range low but OBV does not confirm with a new low, it treats this as a sign that selling momentum is fading and executes a contrarian buy on the 5-minute timeframe. Assets to watch: BTC, ONDO, HYPE, NEAR, PDD (earnings on May 27), MRVL, CRM, DELL.

VIPClarity Act Advances, Opening a Major Growth Opportunity for the RWA Sector

1. Clarity Act advances, opening a major growth opportunity for the RWA sector. The U.S. stablecoin regulatory bill made meaningful progress this week. As the compliance framework becomes clearer, institutional barriers for bringing traditional assets on-chain are being significantly reduced. RWA active market cap has reached $26.5B, covering 171 issuers, and the sector has entered an exponential growth phase since the second half of 2025. 2. OpenAI and SpaceX standing as key names to watch. preSPAX is up 32.7% after 27 days of trading, while preOPAI is up 18.6% just three days after launch, standing out against BTC's 4.8% decline over the same period. OpenAI's annualized revenue has surpassed $10B, while SpaceX's recent stock split has been seen as part of its IPO preparations. Both assets are backed by some of the world's fastest-growing private companies, and PreIPO offers a lower-cost window for early participation. 3. A strong dollar and rising energy prices drove markets this week, with crypto pulling back across the board despite improving underlying conditions. BTC fell 4.8% to $78,200, natural gas led gains at +7.4%, and the DXY rose 1.5%, weighing on non-USD assets. However, the global liquidity Z-score has turned positive, rising from negative territory to +0.15. This suggests the pullback was driven by short-term dollar strength rather than a deterioration in liquidity. The FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday, May 20, will be the key turning point to watch next week. Assets to watch: ONDO / CFG / SKY (RWA), preSPAX / preOPAI (PreIPO), USOUSD (crude oil CFD), NVDA (earnings on May 20)

VIPBTC Rebound Lifts Altcoin Market Sentiment as U.S. Storage Stocks Surge on Price and Volume

1. Global liquidity has likely bottomed, supporting BTC's rebound and range-based strategies. The Fed net liquidity Z-score has rebounded from a low of -1.5, while BTC rose 3.5% this week in line with the recovery. Backtests show that grid trading (+2.5%) and buy and hold (+3.0%) outperformed all trend-following strategies. In the futures market, altcoin activity is picking up, with ZEREBRO, FIGHT, and SNDK showing short-squeeze structures. 2. AI capex demand is flowing into the storage hardware sector, with HDD/NAND names outperforming the broader market by nearly 6x on rising prices and volume. MU gained 42.4%, SNDK rose 31.8% with volume up 90%, and WDC advanced 19.8%, far outpacing the NAS100's 7.1% gain. Enterprise storage software names such as NTAP and PSTG rose only 6%–9% and saw volume decline. 3. Implied SpaceX valuations differ by nearly 40% across platforms due to differences in product structure, with Bitget preSPAX offering the lowest-priced entry point. While OKX, Hyperliquid, and Prestocks imply valuations of around $2.01T–$2.35T through contract-based products, Bitget preSPAX is priced at an implied valuation of roughly $1.62T and remains the only RWA spot product backed by underlying equity exposure, with no funding fee holding costs. Assets to watch: BTC, PRESPAX, MU, SNDK, the SUI ecosystem, silver (precious metals CFD)

VIPStrait of Hormuz Tensions Escalate, Oil Surge Caps Upside for Risk Assets

1) The Strait of Hormuz standoff continues, with WTI up another 8.5% this week and up 63% since March. Iran's blockade has entered its fifth week, and neither side is showing signs of compromise. WTI closed at $106, compared with around $65 before the war, marking a nearly 80% gain in just two months. The nature of this oil rally matters: it is a pure supply-side shock, which creates a more direct transmission chain. Inflation expectations rise passively, the rate-cut window narrows, liquidity expectations tighten, and valuations for risk assets come under pressure. 2) SpaceX momentum builds, while Bitget offers preSPAX spot trading. Around May 3, the Starship flight test program made important progress, with further improvements in booster and spacecraft landing and recovery capabilities. Full-system reusability reached a new high. At the same time, SpaceX's valuation has continued to climb, placing it among the world's most valuable private companies, with strong market interest in a potential IPO. Bitget currently offers preSPAX spot trading, giving retail users one of the most direct and convenient ways to gain secondary-market exposure to SpaceX's valuation growth. 3) Small-cap futures factor strategy's Top 10 basket is 115.7% YTD. The key is diversification to capture tail events. From 400+ futures, the model selects the Top 10 daily based on factor scores and holds them equally weighted. Core factors include negative funding rates, which indicate crowded shorts paying longs; sharp OI growth without price movement, which suggests concentrated short positioning before a potential breakout; and short-led liquidations, which show that a squeeze is already underway. The Top 10 basket is up 115.7% YTD, with a maximum drawdown of 43.4% and a Sharpe ratio of 2.21. Assets to watch: BTC · PRESPAX · BIO · GALA · Coinbase (spot & derivatives; with Coinbase earnings on May 7 AMC as a potential catalyst.)