News

(1) Hindustan Petroleum Corporation issued a new round of high-sulphur fuel oil spot sale tenders on Thursday, offering two cargoes of 33,000 tonnes each, with loading dates of June 23-25 and June 29-July 1, shipped from Visakhapatnam Port. The tender deadline is June 5. This is one of several consecutive high-sulphur fuel oil supplies recently launched by HPCL. (2) In recently completed tenders, HPCL awarded a 33,000-tonne high-sulphur fuel oil cargo to Trafigura for loading on June 17-19. Thailand’s PTT offered multiple cargoes of high-sulphur fuel oil, including 18,000 tonnes for June 18-20 and 25,000 tonnes for June 25-27, for which buyers have not yet been confirmed. South Korea’s GS Caltex awarded two 43,000-tonne high-sulphur fuel oil cargoes to Macrocy for loading on June 8-14. (3) From a supply and demand perspective, Indian refineries continue to increase high-sulphur fuel oil exports, reflecting relatively ample supply in the region. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka’s Ceypetco is seeking to purchase 30,000 tonnes of 180 CST fuel oil, to be loaded in Colombo on June 27-28. Going forward, the focus will be on whether the peak summer electricity demand can absorb the incremental supply from India and Southeast Asia.

⑴ Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell for the third consecutive trading day, at one point dropping 4%, heading toward its lowest closing level since November 2020. ⑵ Ahmad Mikail Zaini, Chief Economist at Sucor Sekuritas, stated that government policy uncertainty, the risk of a credit rating downgrade, and a weak rupiah are all putting pressure on the stock market. Since the government's announcement of an export control plan, negative sentiment has continued to intensify. ⑶ The Jakarta Composite Index has fallen 8% so far this week, and is expected to decline for the fourth straight week. Since the start of the year, the index has dropped by about 35% in total.

BlockBeats News, June 5th, the latest research from the Boston Fed pointed out that with the improvement in energy efficiency and the growth in domestic crude oil production, the U.S. economy's sensitivity to oil price increases has significantly decreased. Unlike the oil crisis of the 1970s, the current oil price increase no longer massively impacts the job market. The additional jobs created by the oil and gas industry's expansion can partially offset the pressure on other industries. Therefore, the possibility of high oil prices leading to a "stagflation" situation of high inflation and high unemployment has noticeably decreased. However, the report also warned that the cushioning effect of oil price shocks on employment has weakened, implying that the inflationary pressure from rising energy prices may be more enduring. The Fed does not need to overly worry about energy price hikes leading to an economic downturn, but should focus more on containing inflation. The current market consensus is that the Fed's June meeting will keep rates unchanged, but some officials have begun discussing the possibility of raising rates later this year. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley believes that the current oil price surge is more of a short-term supply disruption and is not sufficient to be a key factor driving rate hikes. The institution expects the U.S. interest rate to remain unchanged for the whole year and is likely to start a rate-cutting cycle in 2027. However, as geopolitical conflicts push up energy prices, the market's view on the Fed's policy path has significantly shifted. Fed officials have recently been sending frequent hawkish signals, emphasizing that if inflation remains persistently above the target level, further policy tightening is not ruled out.